Unlucky or just not good enough? How Arsenal’s potential Premier League points tally compares

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Potential of 89 points  

This Sunday a memorable Premier League season comes to an end. There have been more goals than ever before with 1209 goals already scored this campaign. The title race will go down to the last day between Manchester City and Arsenal, but the Gunners would need to beat Everton at the Emirates, and hope Pep Guardiola’s team drop points at home to West Ham. The most likely outcome would be a win for both sides, which would leave Mikel Arteta’s side on 89 points but trophy-less.

So have Arsenal been very unlucky, or have they just not quite been at the level required to topple the juggernauts that are this Man City team? The aforementioned 89 points total that the Gunners would end up with if they were to beat Everton this Sunday, plus the 62+ goal difference they would obtain, would have won the Premier League title in 19 of the previous 30 Premier League seasons. Here at Transfermarkt we have assessed the stats to see how unlucky Arsenal have been and whether it is now harder to win the Premier League than ever before.

Premier League runner up points totals assessed

Not many teams know better than Jürgen Klopp’s Liverpool about what it’s like to go toe-to-toe with this Man City team for the Premier League title. As you can see in the graphic below, Klopp’s side have twice gotten over 90 points and still missed out on ultimate glory. When we assess the best points total from all runners up in the Premier League era we can see this current Arsenal team, if they were to beat Everton on the final day, would come joint third with 89 points. Of course it’s no pre-requisite that Arsenal will beat Everton, but the Gunners will be huge favourites. The top three best points totals for Premier League runners up have all come when Guardiola has been managing in the division.  

Whilst the obvious standpoint would suggest it has been harder to win the Premier League than ever in recent years due to incredible points tallies Man City continue to accumulate, you could also make the argument that the teams lower down the table are weaker than ever and overall the Premier League is not as competitive as it once was. This idea could be enhanced by the fact Nottingham Forest are virtually guaranteed Premier League safety with just 29 points. In the table below you can see the points tallies of all of the English top flight’s runners up over the past 15 seasons. Only Liverpool have ever gotten more points than Arsenal could this season as the second placed team in the division, but ultimately the Gunners will get the same prize as every other runner up – nothing.

It’s of course not a foregone conclusion that Arsenal won’t win the league this season. David Moyes will manage West Ham for the very last time at the Etihad on Sunday, knowing that if his team could get a result it would be an extremely memorable way to bow out. Perhaps midfielder Declan Rice may have also been in contact with some of his former team-mates and ex-manager this week in pursuit of a huge favour. Nevertheless, despite winning 15 of their last 17 league games, the odds are now stacked firmly against the Gunners.

Arsenal’s season compared to Sir Alex Ferguson’s title winning Man United teams

Sir Alex Ferguson is world renowned as one of, if not the, best manager of all-time. He led Manchester United to 13 Premier League titles in his 23 years in charge, as well as winning two Champions Leagues. He was often competing with Arsenal’s Arséne Wenger for some of those titles. But how do Ferguson’s title triumphs compare to the season this current Arsenal team are having? We have compiled the points totals of all 13 of Ferguson”s title winning seasons and put them up against the Gunners this campaign.

As you can see, astonishingly, Arsenal’s potential points total of 89 points would better 10 of Ferguson’s title winning seasons. A remarkable statistic. When we also take into consideration that one of Man United’s three Premier League winnings seasons with more points than this Arsenal team was from a 42 game season in the early 1990’s it only enhances the levels now needed to be Premier League champion. Arsenal’s potential goal difference that would be at least +62 if they were to win against Everton also beats any goal difference accumulated by a Ferguson team in the Premier League. There’s no doubt these stats will give little solace to Arsenal supporters, but it will show them that this team is making serious progression under Arteta’s stewardship.