The Premier League is becoming a closed shop – Could all 3 promoted teams get relegated again?

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Ipswich v Leicester Saturday 

©TM/IMAGO

Last May, for the first time since 1998 in the Premier League, all three teams that were promoted from the Championship the previous season were relegated. Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton all went straight back down, and the former two put up little fight. Those three teams finished on 16, 24 and 26 points respectively and all got relegated despite Everton and Nottingham Forest receiving points deductions. It was only the second time that event had ever occurred in the Premier League, after Crystal Palace, Barnsley and Bolton all went straight back down in the 1997/98 campaign.

Nine games into this new season, and already the possibility of that feat repeating itself is looking very feasible. Southampton and Ipswich remain winless in the Premier League and in the bottom three, with the former rooted to the bottom of the table with just one point. Leicester have faired slightly better, sitting 15th with two wins, but they are only five points clear of the drop, and one of their two wins came against fellow promoted strugglers Southampton.

Another potential relegation six-pointer will take place this weekend, with the Foxes going to Portman Road to face Ipswich. If all three of the promoted sides go straight back down again what sort of image does that bode for the Premier League? Is the gulf in quality between the English top-flight and the Championship bigger than ever before? And is the Premier League now becoming a closed shop for the elite? The squad market values of three promoted teams are the lowest in the division.

Is the Premier League becoming a closed shop?

As touched upon above, last season very much highlighted how hard it is for promoted teams to survive in the cauldron that is the Premier League. All three sides looked out of their depth throughout the campaign. While 18th placed Luton put up a spirited effort, with a squad not built for the English top-flight, they were still well off the pace. This season they are 22nd in the Championship with largely the same squad and the same manager. Last term, the average points of the three relegated sides was just 22 points; the previous lowest average for the three promoted sides after 37 games was 27.3 in 2007-08 (Sunderland, Birmingham, Derby). On only one other occasion has the average been under 32 – in 2021-22 when Brentford, Watford and Norwich managed 30.3.

To put into perspective how poor and ill-equipped last season’s three promoted sides were, it’s interesting to look at the worst points totals in Premier League history. When we look across the seasons (since 1992/93 when the Premier League began) all three of last term’s relegated teams feature in the top 20 when it comes to worst points totals; Sheffield United joint-third worst with 16, Burnley joint-13th worst with 24, and Luton joint-16th worst with 26. Below we have isolated, the worst points totals for 20th placed sides, 19th placed sides, and 18th placed sides, and it makes for grim reading for last season’s teams.

As can be identified above, Sheffield United were the third-worst 20th placed team in Premier League history, Burnley were the second-worst 19th placed team, and Luton were the worst 18th placed side. With so much money in the Premier League nowadays, the permanent elite is stretching from the traditional ‘Big six’ teams right down the division, with it increasingly harder for Championship teams to muscle in and become stalwart Premier League sides. It already looks a tough task for this term’s three promoted teams.

Could all three promoted teams get relegated for the 2nd season in-a-row?

At the start of the season, the three promoted sides were the three favourites to go down. That remains that way nine games into the campaign, despite Wolves currently sitting in the bottom three. Ipswich came up after back-to-back promotions from League One, with many of their current squad coming all the way through the divisions with the Tractor Boys. Leicester lost the manager that got them promoted, as Enzo Maresca left for Chelsea. While Southampton came up via the play-offs, after finishing fourth and conceding 63 goals. None of those situations seem ideal to take the Premier League by storm.

Nine games in, and that’s very much the case. As mentioned Leicester have managed two wins, but have looked less than convincing, with one of those victories against a 10-man Southampton side, and the other somewhat of a smash-and-grab 1-0 win against Bournemouth. Ipswich have managed four draws, and have already conceded four goals on three occasions. While Southampton have just a solitary point, which came against fellow strugglers Ipswich at St Marys – albeit they were unfortunate not to take all three on that occasion, with Ipswich equalising in injury time. 

To have just two wins between all three promoted sides, nine matches into the campaign, doesn’t bode well. Does it matter that much? Perhaps to some more than others. Modern football is practically designed to support the elite and there’s clearly a portion of the Premier League’s audience who have little care about the diversity of the sides fighting in the division. But one of the great spectacles of the English game is it’s football pyramid, and the idea that the biggest clubs and the smallest sides all compete in the same vast structure, and that everybody can move up or move down according to form. But a pyramid has to have a somewhat smooth incline; if there are steep, almost unassailable steps, it takes away the structure’s ultimate strength – it’s competition and possibilities.