Ollie Watkins V Ivan Toney – Who is England’s best backup striker to Harry Kane?

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Watkins with 26 PL G+A 

A World Cup golden boot winner, England’s all-time top scorer, and the second highest goalscorer in Premier League history, there’s do doubt that, if fit, captain Harry Kane is the first name on England’s team sheet at the Euros this summer. However, his recent ankle injury, has highlighted the question of: who do the Three Lions turn too if Kane is unavailable? This recent international break has given the opportunity for an audition for the most likely pair of strikers ready to try and fill Kane’s boots. It has also made the possibility of Kane missing out realistic. A back up plan may be needed.

In England’s 1-0 defeat to Brazil at Wembley on Saturday, Aston Villa striker Ollie Watkins got the chance to lead the line. Although the 28 year old failed to really stake his claim, spurning a couple of good opportunities and failing to hold up play consistently. He did though showcase glimpses of his ability to run in behind and stretch defences – a skill that has been key to his success with Villa this season. On Tuesday against Belgium, Brentford striker Ivan Toney is set to get the nod from the start. But will it be Watkins or Toney that is the number two to Kane in Germany this summer? We take a look at how the two forwards compare.

Watkins has been on fire this season. He is joint top of the assist charts in the Premier League this term with 10, and is the second top goalscorer in the division with 16 – only behind Manchester City’s prolific Erling Haaland (18). Whilst Toney only returned to action in late January following his ban for breaching betting rules, so it’s only fair to compare the two using statistics per 90 minutes in the Premier League this campaign. 

As can be seen in the table above, Watkins beats Toney in almost every attacking metric even looking at stats per 90 minutes. Watkins is averaging a goal practically every other game, whilst Toney is scoring 0.35 goals per 90 minutes. Toney is yet to assist in the Premier league since making his return, while Watkins narrowly trumps Toney when it comes to dribbles per 90 minutes, touches in the opposition box per 90 minutes and shots on target per 90 minutes. It should be taken into consideration however that Watkins is playing in a far more effective team.

Aston Villa sit fourth in the league table and are challenging for the Champions League places. Only the top three in the Premier League have scored more. Brentford are lingering in 15th just above the relegation zone. If it wasn’t for the points deductions handed to Everton and Nottingham Forest, the Bees would be just four points clear of the relegation places. 14 teams in the division have scored more goals this season, including Luton.

When it comes to pure goals over the last five seasons or so, Toney leads Watkins with 121 goals since the beginning of the 2018/19 season. Watkins has 104 goals in that timeframe. It should be noted though, that Watkins was largely scoring in a higher division, with two of Toney’s seasons coming in League One with Peterborough, and one in the Championship with Brentford. Watkins had just two seasons in the Championship in that period, also with Brentford. Both strikers possess goals, but bring different qualities to the team.

Toney’s game is more centred around his superb hold up play and composure and monstrous aerial ability. He likes to come short to feet and link up play. Watkins primarily prefers to run in behind and exploit spaces behind the opposition defence. Toney also brings a skill that could be key, and something that has been the kryptonite to England’s success in many tournaments in years gone by – he is a superb penalty taker. The Brentford striker has scored 29 of the 31 penalties he has taken in his career, giving him a 94% strike rate. That calmness and composure from the spot could be the difference for the Three Lions in Germany.

When looking at England’s options up front it seems more than likely that it will be either Watkins or Toney to deputise if Kane is unavailable. Watkins is the top English scorer besides Kane since the start of last season, whilst the only other striker that has more than Toney is Callum Wilson, who has been plagued with injuries this season and is a doubt to even be fit for the Euros. Gareth Southgate may also have the option of playing either Marcus Rashford or Jarrod Bowen through the middle. England will be praying Kane is fit and available, but if the worst was to happen, there’s a real dilemma as to whether Watkins or Toney is the man to lead the line.

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