Masters at the business end – Pep Guardiola’s fantastic run-in record with Manchester City

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Heading for 4th title in-a-row? 

Manchester City‘s 2-0 win at the Tottenham Hotspur stadium on Tuesday night had huge repercussions across North London. The Sky Blues are now two points ahead of Arsenal in the Premier League table as we go into the final day. And with a mind-blowing record at the business end of the season, Pep Guardiola’s team are firm favourites to make history. The club would be making history because the Sky Blues would become the first ever team to win four English top-flight titles in a row. A record that hasn’t been broken in over 130 years.

West Ham at home is all that stands in Man City’s way. Win that game and they will be champions. If the club were to be victorious, then it would mean Man City would have taken 28 points from the final 30 available, And disappointingly for Arsenal fans, it has become a habit with Guardiola’s team in recent seasons. When games matter more than ever, this side usually steps up, and are pretty much faultless.

As can be identified in the graphic above, no team has taken more points than Man City (166 points) in the last 10 games of the Premier League season since Guardiola arrived. Liverpool do run them mightily close though (163 points). However, even the occasions where this Man City team have dropped points during the run-in, it has usually been when the title has already been wrapped up. Across those seven seasons, the Sky Blues have lost just eight matches in the last 10 games of the season. Four of those have been when Man City were effectively already champions regardless. When they need results at the close of the campaign, they usually get them. 

Across seven seasons, Man City have dropped just 40 points from the final 10 Premier League games. They have taken 166 points from a possible 206. In the 2018/19 season, where they pipped Liverpool to the title by a point, Guardiola’s team won all 10 of their final games. Last season, where they wrestled the title off of Arsenal, they won eight of the final 10, and only dropped points in the final two games, when they were mathematically already champions. 

The club have also been setting record figures for points totals in a Premier League season. In the 2017/18 campaign they were the centurions – the first ever team to get 100 Premier League points. Since then they have eclipsed 90 points twice and 85 points four times from five seasons. It has meant that Liverpool have twice got over 90 points in recent years and not won the Premier League. The 97 Liverpool achieved in 2018/19 would have won the league in every season before Guardiola came to England. Even the 93 they got in 21/22 would have won the title every season before Guardiola bar the 2004/05 campaign. If Man City win all their remaining four games this term, they will get 91 points and Arsenal’s highest possible total of 89 simply won’t be enough.