Leeds, Southampton, Norwich and West Brom – who will win promotion to Premier League?

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Play-offs underway 

The winners of the English Championship play-offs will earn the most lucrative prize in football. Four clubs will compete to reach the Premier League and the play-off final  is estimated to be worth around €300 for the winners in TV deals, sponsorship and additional revenue streams. 

It’s widely regarded as the richest game in football but Leeds United, Southampton, Norwich City and West Bromwich Albion will need to navigate the two-legged semi-finals to reach the Wembley showpiece. It was another thrilling season in England’s second tier with four clubs – Leeds, Southampton, Leicester City and Ipswich Town – engulfed in a race for the two automatic play-off places. Leicester were eventually crowned champions to immediately bounce back from relegation and Ipswich completed an incredible achievement to secure back-to-back promotions. At the start of the season, Leeds and Southampton were favourites to secure automatic returns to the Premier League but will either of them emerge victorious through the play-offs?

Who will win the English Championship play-offs?

Leeds United finished third and they’ll face Norwich City in the semi-final while Southampton face West Brom. Both first legs were played last weekend but they were arduous affairs, which ended in goalless draws but the two favourites – Leeds and Southampton – will be confident of progressing to the final at Wembley. Leeds welcome Norwich to Elland Road tonight and their home support could be crucial in ensuring they progress past the Canaries. However, Leeds badly tailed off towards the end of the season as they surrendered their automatic promotion place to Ipswich.

West Brom travel to the South Coast to take on Southampton on Friday night but they’ll be huge underdogs against Russell Martin’s men but the form table provides hope to West Brom and Norwich.Across the last ten Championship games, Leeds United and Southampton really struggled with Norwich and West Brom enjoying superior records. Leeds ranked 12th with 14 points, while Norwich ranked fourth with 18 points. Furthermore, Southampton ranked 13th on 14 points – with a goal difference of -3 – and West Brom sat ninth on 15 points. Leeds, however, won both games against Norwich during the regular season, while Southampton won both encounters against West Brom. As the graphic below illustrates, the total market value of Leeds United and Southampton are far superior to their opponents. Moreover, at the start of the season, Southampton also boasted the most valuable squad in the English Championship history.

The most valuable players in the English Championship play-offs

Southampton and Leeds United dominate the list of the most valuable players in the English Championship play-offs. Leeds’ squad (€205.6m) is more valuable squad than Southampton (€189.9m) but the Saints have the two most valuable players in Taylor Harwood-Bellis and Kyle Walker-Peters. 

Former Manchester City defender Harwood-Bellis is the second most valuable player in the English Championship behind Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall. Walker-Peters has strong interest from Premier League clubs and the former Tottenham star is valued at €20m. After Harwood-Bellis and Walker-Peters, four Leeds United players are valued at €18m, while Gabriel Sara is the only Norwich City player in the top ten list. No West Brom players feature with Grady Diangana their most valuable player at €4m.