Is Premier League becoming a closed shop? All three promoted teams could get relegated again

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Likely lowest ever points average for 3 promoted sides 

©TM/IMAGO

Last May, for the first time since 1998 in the Premier League, all three teams that were promoted from the Championship the previous season were relegated. Sheffield United, Burnley and Luton all went straight back down, and the former two put up little fight. Those three teams finished on 16, 24 and 26 points respectively and all got relegated despite Everton and Nottingham Forest receiving points deductions. It was only the second time that event had ever occurred in the Premier League, after Crystal Palace, Barnsley and Bolton all went straight back down in the 1997/98 campaign.

28 games into this new season, and already the possibility of that feat repeating itself is looking increasingly likely. Southampton sit in 20th, rooted to the bottom of the table with just nine points – the Saints could be set to hold the unwanted feat of the Premier League’s worst ever team. Leicester and Ipswich have faired ever so slightly better. They sit in 19th and 18th in the table, each on 17 points from 28 matches. They are both currently six points adrift of 17th placed Wolves. 

If all three of the promoted sides go straight back down again, then what sort of image does that bode for the Premier League? Is the gulf in quality between the English top-flight and the Championship bigger than ever before? And is the Premier League now becoming a closed shop only for the elite? Could the same teams end up consistently holding a hierarchy over the division? The current squad market values of three promoted teams are the lowest in the division.

Is the Premier League becoming a closed shop?

As touched upon above, last season very much highlighted how hard it is for promoted teams to survive in the cauldron that is the modern Premier League. All three sides looked out of their depth throughout the campaign. While 18th placed Luton put up a spirited effort, with a squad not quite built for the English top-flight, they were still well off the pace. This season they are 23rd in the Championship with largely the same squad. Last term, the average points of the three relegated sides was just 22 points; the previous lowest average for the three promoted sides after 38 games was 27.3 in 2007-08 (Sunderland, Birmingham, Derby). On only one other occasion has the average been under 32 – in 2021-22 when Brentford, Watford and Norwich managed 30.3. This season, based on the the current points totals of Southampton, Ipswich and Leicester, they would amass an average of just 19 points.

To put into perspective how poor and ill-equipped last season’s three promoted sides were, it’s interesting to look at the worst points totals in Premier League history. When we look across the seasons (since 1992/93 when the Premier League began) all three of last term’s relegated teams feature in the top 20 when it comes to worst points totals; Sheffield United joint-third worst with 16, Burnley joint-13th worst with 24, and Luton joint-16th worst with 26. Below, we have isolated the worst points totals for 20th placed sides, 19th placed sides, and 18th placed sides, and it makes for grim reading for last season’s relegated trio.

As can be identified above, Sheffield United were the third-worst 20th placed team in Premier League history, Burnley were the second-worst 19th placed team, and Luton were the worst 18th placed side. Southampton are currently projected to finish the season on just 10 points based on their current points total, which would make them the division’s worst ever team. Leicester are projected to get 23 points, which would make them the joint-worst 19th placed team, and Ipswich are also projected to get 23 points, which would make them the outright-worst 18th placed side. With so much money in the Premier League nowadays, the permanent elite is stretching from the traditional ‘Big six’ teams right down the division, with it increasingly harder for Championship teams to muscle in and become stalwart Premier League sides.

Could all three promoted teams get relegated for the 2nd season in-a-row?

At the start of the season, the three promoted sides were the three favourites to go down. That very much remains that way 28 games into the campaign. Ipswich came up after back-to-back promotions from League One, with many of their current squad coming all the way through the divisions with the Tractor Boys. Leicester lost the manager that got them promoted, as Enzo Maresca left for Chelsea, and have since swapped his replacement Steve Cooper for Ruud van Nistelrooy. While Southampton came up via the play-offs, after finishing fourth and conceding 63 goals. None of those situations seemed ideal to take the Premier League by storm. 

With 28 games played, that still looks very much the case. Leicester have managed just four wins, but have looked less than convincing, with one of those victories against a 10-man Southampton side, and another somewhat of a smash-and-grab 1-0 win against Bournemouth. Ipswich have managed three wins, and have already conceded four goals on six occasions. While Southampton look completely doomed, and focus will now likely be switched from any faint hopes they had of staying up, to avoiding being the Premier League’s worst ever team. They are already 14 points adrift of 17th. 

To have just eight wins between all three promoted sides, 28 matches into the campaign doesn’t bode well. Does it matter that much? Perhaps to some more than others. Modern football is practically designed to support the elite and there’s clearly a portion of the Premier League’s audience who have little care about the diversity of the sides fighting in the division. But one of the great spectacles of the English game is it’s football pyramid, and the idea that the biggest clubs and the smallest sides all compete in the same vast structure, and that everybody can move up or move down according to form. But a pyramid has to have a somewhat smooth incline; if there are steep, almost unassailable steps, it takes away the structure’s ultimate strength – it’s competition and possibilities.