Who will win Euro 2024? Transfermarkt predicts every round of the European Championships

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Based on market values 

Euro 2024 is now just one day away and as football fans gear up for a fantastic festival of international football, many will be wondering which nations are favourites to top their group, get to the latter stages of the competition and, ultimately, lift the trophy itself. Here at Transfermarkt, we’ve run the numbers and tried to offer up a realistic idea of what could play out over the next few weeks based on the market value of each team in the competition. Here’s how it looks. 

Group Stages

Based on the market values of each nation, we would predict that in Group A none other than Germany (market value: €851 million) would come first, followed by Switzerland (€281.5m), Scotland (€207.4m) and then Hungary (€165.4m). Group B would finish with Spain (€965.5m) first, Italy (€705.5m) second, Croatia (€327.7m) third and Albania (€111.6m) fourth. Group C would unsurprisingly have England (€1.52b) sitting top, Denmark (€415.5m) in second, Serbia (€313.4m) third and in fourth place would be Slovenia (€141.55m). 

Group D would see France (€1.23b) finish top, followed by the Netherlands (€765m), Austria (€237m) and then Poland (€210.3m). Belgium (€584.45m) would top Group E, with Ukraine (€379m), Slovakia (€156.4m) and Romania (€92.1m) following in that order. Then, in Group F, Portugal (€1.05b) would likely come out on top, Türkiye (€324.1m) in second, Czechia (€185.9m) in third and Georgia (€161.5m) in fourth. Four of the six third-placed teams would then join the other 12 teams in the knock-out round and based on who finished third in our model and then based on their market values those nations would be Croatia, Serbia, Austria and Scotland. 

The knock-out rounds

As such, the first knock-out round would see Spain beat Scotland, Germany beat Denmark, Portugal beat Serbia, the Netherlands beat Ukraine, Belgium beat Croatia, France beat Türkiye, England beat Austria and Italy beat Switzerland. This would then mean the quarter-finals would see Spain face Germany and beat them, Portugal to overcome the Netherlands, France to beat Belgium and then England to beat Italy. The semi-finals would then see Portugal beat Spain and England to narrowly edge it against France. 

The final 

To no great surprise, the final would see the most valuable nation in the tournament, England, face off against the third most valuable nation. And while both teams can boast a squad worth over €1 billion, England are likely to get the better of their European rivals due to their market value being €470m higher than Portugals. And, as such, Gareth Southgate’s team would be crowned as European champions.