To win the Premier League, Slot knows he’ll have to improve on Klopp’s record in the big games

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Liverpool v Chelsea 

Perhaps the greatest quality that new Liverpool manager Arne Slot has shown since making the move to Anfield at the start of this season has been modesty. With 18 points and just two conceded goals from their first seven league games, no Premier League side have managed to match the Reds as they sit top of the league table. And in many ways the Dutch tactician has enjoyed the perfect start to life in the English top-flight. And yet, Slot would be the first to point out that he’s team has accomplished nothing yet. 

Despite beating Manchester United 3-0 at Old Trafford on matchday three, Slot was adamant in a press conference before the international break that his team won’t amount to much if they can’t beat the best teams in the Premier League. “We still have to prove that if we come across Arsenal, Newcastle, Chelsea and Aston Villa if we can still be up there, with Champions League games included as well,” he said after a 2-1 win over Wolves. “To play in the Champions League and then play Arsenal and Aston Villa and all the top teams we are going to face after the next international break. For us there is a lot to prove, especially if you look at the season two years ago and it is almost completely the same group.”

Indeed, while some may accuse Slot of simply tempering expectations, there’s no doubt that his Liverpool side will face one of the tests he claims they have to overcome if they are to truly make waves this season. On Sunday the Reds welcome a Chelsea side that sit just four points below them in the league table to Anfield and be tasked with picking up all three points against a top six opponent. Which will not only prove how much this Liverpool team have improved under their new manager but perhaps also indicate whether he can fix a problem that dogged his predecessor in the last three seasons of his tenure at Liverpool. 

Although Klopp not only proved to be the only manager capable of breaking Pep Guardiola and Manchester City’s stranglehold over the Premier League with his title win in 2019/20, alongside two of the club’s five best points totals in Premier League history in 2018/19 and 2021/22, Liverpool undoubtedly struggled to match the pace set by Man City each and every season. In some circumstances they came extremely close (in 21/22 they finished one point off top spot), while in others they fell well off the pace set by the better teams in the league (they finished 22 points behind Man City the following season). But in just about every circumstance, what has really set Liverpool and Guardiola’s serial winners apart has been their record in the crunch games against the other clubs competing for the top six spots in the Premier League. 

When we tally up the 30 games that Liverpool played against the teams that eventually finished in the top six in each of the last three seasons, it points to a record of 11 wins, three draws and 13 defeats. And when we compare that to Liverpool’s overall form across all league games in that period, it undoubtedly shows a clear drop off in performances and, crucially, plenty of points dropped. As the graphic above shows, Liverpool’s points per game in all games over the three seasons in question stands at 2.11, but then drops to just 1.53 against top six opposition. In total, Liverpool have dropped 46 points in said games across the three league campaigns and in many cases these dropped points have cost them dearly. Naturally, the 12 points dropped in 21/22 stopped them winning the league title, while the 16 points dropped in 22/23 would have seen them move up from fifth to third and the 16 points dropped last season was considerably more than the 10-point difference between them finishing third and finishing first. 

Of course, nobody expects Liverpool to win every single game against top-six opponents. But when we compare their record in these games to Man City’s own record, we can see where the gap lies between Guardiola’s perennial champions and the chasing pack. As the table above illustrates, Klopp’s Liverpool were the best of the rest when it came to showdowns with other teams fighting for the top six positions, but picked up eight fewer points than Man City. These, unquestionably, are incredibly fine margins. But they’re also the kind of margins that Slot knows will define his time as Liverpool manager. If the Dutchman hopes to truly emulate Klopp and bring a league title to Liverpool, he’ll have to make sure his team picks up the maximum amount of points against the likes of Man City, Arsenal or Tottenham. And when Chelsea step out onto the pitch at Anfield on Sunday, we’ll likely find out the full extent of Liverpool’s intentions under their new manager.