The two key secrets behind Nottingham Forest’s stunning form

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3rd in Premier League 

Nottingham Forest are the surprise package of the Premier League season with Nuno Espírito Santo’s men currently occupying third place. The bookmakers installed Forest as one of the favourites for relegation in pre-season but they’ve defied those expectations by losing just once in their opening ten games. Forest were widely derided for their infamous transfer policy upon their return to the Premier League but they’ve now implemented a clear strategy and their recent recruitment has been superb.

The improvement on last season is remarkable and there’s optimism growing around the City ground as they aim to secure their target of a top-half finish. The comprehensive 3-0 win over West Ham was their biggest Premier League victory since 1996 and it made it three consecutive top-flight wins for the first-time this century. Forest are the only team to beat Liverpool this season and the camaraderie amongst Nuno’s squad is glaringly obvious with their defensive record amongst the European elite. 

Nottingham Forest’s defensive excellence

The cornerstone to Forest’s stunning start to the season has been their watertight defence. Goalkeeper Matz Sels, centre-back Murillo and right-back Ola Aina have started every Premier League game while summer signing Nikola Milenković has been an outstanding buy. As the graphic below illustrates, only RB Leipzig (5) and Liverpool (6) have conceded fewer goals than Forest (7) across the top-five leagues. 

The centre-back partnership of Murillo and Milenkovic has been integral to Forest’s success with the duo playing every minute since the latter’s debut in the win over Southampton in the second game of the season. There’s a perfect balance between their skill sets with left-footed centre-back Murillo rightly earning rave reviews with Forest in line to earn a massive profit on the €14m they paid Corinthians in 2023. Murillo has received his first Brazil call-up for the upcoming international break and his market value has soared to €40 million but Forest will demand a fee in excess of that with Liverpool and Real Madrid amongst a host of admirers. 

Nottingham Forest’s transfer spending since Premier League return 

After securing their return to the Premier League in 2022, Forest were subjected to considerable ridicule for their haphazard recruitment policy. They remarkably signed 30 players across that season and they had the third highest net spend in the Premier League of €193m. While concerns over their approach were legitimate, Forest’s squad needed to be transformed after promotion from the Championship as they had a number of players with loan deals expiring and others below the required quality. While Forest spent €198 million across 2022/23, they only recouped €5m in player sales, which highlighted the lack of saleable assets at the club.

But to their credit, Forest’s squad building over the last three windows has been excellent and they’ve installed a sustainable transfer model. Their net spend since the 2023/24 season is just £66m – which ranks them 13th across the Premier League. They’ve had an expenditure of €235m but they’ve crucially recouped €170m in sales. Parallel to their first summer back in the Premier League, Forest have a clear recruitment strategy and business model with their first-team squad now littered with sellable assets – Morgan Gibbs-White, Murillo, Callum Hudson-Odoi and Anthony Elanga. Sporting director Ross Wilson has been central to Forest’s improvement in their transfer dealings with the arrivals of Elanga and Hudson-Odoi for a combined €20.5m representing excellent business with Brennan Johnson leaving for €55m.