Responsible for 72% of Liverpool’s goals – Are Arne Slot’s team too reliant on Mohamed Salah?

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One-man team? 

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Liverpool will make the trip to Goodison Park on Saturday afternoon with every intention of getting back to winning ways in the Premier League, after what could accurately be described as a “wobble” in midweek. In a 3-3 draw away to Newcastle, Arne Slot’s table-topping side had to come from behind twice to lead against Eddie Howe’s team, only to then concede two points in the dying moments of the match when Fabian Schär fired home from a free kick. It was the first time Liverpool had dropped points in the English top flight since their 2-2 draw with Arsenal in August, and there’s little doubt that the Anfield side will want to make sure it doesn’t happen again this weekend.

However, that may be easier said than done. Saturday’s opponents are none other than cross-city rivals Everton, and while Sean Dyche’s side may be lingering near the bottom of the table, they do have a habit of causing an upset in front of their own fans. In clashes between the two clubs at Goodison Park, Liverpool have won just four of the last 15 head-to-heads in all competitions. If Slot wants to get back to winning ways in what will surely be a difficult match, he will undoubtedly need to turn to the one, notable match-winner in his squad: Mohamed Salah.

Liverpool’s over-reliance on Salah

So far this season, Salah has well and truly hit the ground running with no fewer than 21 goals and assists in just 14 games. While that also includes four penalties, it shouldn’t take away from the fact that the Egyptian international has shot to the top of Liverpool’s charts for goal contributions. Remarkably, Salah has scored at least one goal in each of Liverpool’s last seven league games, alongside four assists in that time. Few would doubt the 32-year-old’s capacity to score against Everton on Saturday. But with all those goals and assists has come a notable reliance on the forward, which notably sticks out when we compare Liverpool to their rivals.

As we can see in the graphic above, Salah’s goals and assists amount to no less than 72.4% of Liverpool’s total league goals this season. Unsurprisingly, that is the highest percentage in the entire Premier League and is considerably higher than the second-highest figure, which belongs to Nottingham Forest’s Chris Wood (56.3%). While Liverpool fans should certainly celebrate Salah’s incredible run of form, Slot may take note of the fact that his club’s rivals aren’t nearly as over-reliant on their star players. In comparison, Bukayo Saka only accounts for 53.6% of Arsenal’s league goals, while Erling Haaland (52%) and Cole Palmer (48.4%) have contributed an even lower proportion of Manchester City’s and Chelsea’s league goals respectively.

Can Liverpool rely on Salah’s remarkable run of form?

Even if we were to exclude Liverpool from comparisons with their counterparts in the league this season, we need only take a look at Salah’s previous returns in the English top flight to deduce how likely this incredible run of form is to continue for the duration of the league campaign. Interestingly, the Egyptian forward’s tally of 21 goals and assists in the first 14 games of the season is already closing in on last season’s total return of 28 goal contributions in the Premier League. Salah has hit some incredible heights during his time at Liverpool – such as the 42 goal contributions he achieved in his first season at the club or the 36 he bagged in the 2021/22 campaign – but on average, he tends to pick up around 31 goal contributions per season. Unless the 32-year-old talent has suddenly stepped up a level, it seems more than likely that this incredible run of form will come back down to earth and see the player drop off in form.

As we can see in the graphic above, which shows the percentage of Liverpool’s league goals that Salah has either scored or assisted each season, this current rate of 72.4% is wildly above even his best seasons at the club. While the forward’s return to mere mortality in front of goal should certainly be seen as a perfectly normal part of being a top-tier athlete in the modern game, it’s something that Slot may need to acknowledge and prepare for ahead of time. While Salah has been scoring goals and winning games for Liverpool almost single-handedly, it has overshadowed the disappointing form of some of their other forward players. For example, Cody Gakpo has just three goals and assists in 14 league games, Luis Díaz has seven in 14, and Darwin Núñez has just three in 11, while Federico Chiesa and Diogo Jota continue to struggle with match fitness. If Liverpool want to maintain their run to this season’s title, it almost certainly won’t come down to Salah’s continued goal-scoring form but whether the team’s supporting cast can compensate for him when his goals and assists do eventually slow down.