Premier League news: One point separates top three – Liverpool, Man City & Arsenal fight it out in climactic title race

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Arsenal lead the way 

This Premier League season is set go down as one for the ages. The division is well on course to smash the record for the most goals scored in a Premier League campaign. Last season actually holds the current accolade with 1084 goals. If this term continues with the same scoring rate we have seen so far, for the run-in, it’s on course for there to be well over 1,200 goals, shattering the achievement set last year.

We have been treated to some sensational games of football. Chelsea 4-4 Manchester City, Brighton’s 4-2 win against Tottenham, and Manchester United’s 3-2 comeback victory against Aston Villa are just some of the enthralling encounters witnessed. There have been numerous games and storylines you simply can’t take your eyes off. And the title race looks like it’s going to be one of the most thrilling climactic battles in years.

The Premier League title contenders 

There’s seven games to go and everything to play for. Three teams, who all boast very different qualities will fight it out. A new look Arsenal currently lead the way, and are vying to win their first title in 20 years under Mikel Arteta, who would become the first ever boss to win the Premier League in his first managerial job. The 2019/20 champions Liverpool are level on points with the Gunners but behind on goal difference, and will be doing everything possible to help legendary manger Jürgen Klopp bow out with another Premier League title. Then come the trophy juggernauts Man City, who have won the last three titles under Pep Guardiola, and would become the first ever team to win the English top flight four times in a row, if they were to be victorious once again. Three different, but mesmeric stories could be written over the next few months.

Arsenal – 71 points

Last five games – Wolves (A), Spurs (A), Bournemouth (H), Man United (A), Everton (H)

Arsenal were top of the Premier League for 248 days last season, but ultimately a late capitulation meant they couldn’t get over the line in a season where they had been massively overachieving under Arteta. This season they are the chasers. Sloppy points dropped against West Ham and Fulham before the turn of the year left the Gunners behind. However, since the winter break they look right at the top of their game. Arsenal have scored 38 goals and conceded just four in their ten league games this calendar year.

Arsenal have the best defensive record in the entire Premier League, built around the axis of William Saliba, Gabriel and Declan Rice. They’ve conceded just 24 goals all season. In the first half of the campaign scoring was an issue, with many believing Arteta’s team don’t have the natural goalscorer to get them over the line. Although their chance conversion rate has increased drastically in recent weeks, and it will need to continue in that vein. The North London side also still have tough away trips to rivals Tottenham and Manchester United to navigate in their run-in.

Liverpool – 71 points

Last five games – Fulham (A), West Ham (A), Spurs, (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H)

Liverpool have lost just two Premier League games this season – both were in North London. The defeat to Tottenham back in May was also mired in controversy after a VAR error denied a Luis Díaz goal. The other at Arsenal slightly more worrying for Liverpool as they were outclassed by the Gunners. However, on the whole, Liverpool have looked back to their energetic best this season with a rejuvenated midfield after the additions of Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai. They’ve already lifted the first domestic silverware of the season, winning the EFL Cup with a depleted squad.

After the news emerged in January that manager Klopp would be stepping down at the end of the season after nine years at the helm, the motivation to win it for the German will be sky high from both the players and the fans. However, their 3-0 home capitulation to Atalanta in their Europa League quarter-final first leg may have some supporters worried that kind of performance could repeat in the Premier League. Diogo Jota, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Alisson nearing returns from long-term injuries could be a huge boost for the Reds

Man City – 70 points

Last five games – Spurs (A), Forest (A), Wolves (H), Fulham (A), West Ham (H)

It’s getting to that stage of the season, where everybody knows what to expect from Guardiola’s City. Wins, wins and more wins. Last season, the Sky Blues went on a 12 game winning run to wrestle the title from Arsenal. A few years back it was the same story, as they made up a seven point deficit on Liverpool in the 2018/19 season. They are currently a point behind the leaders Arsenal and second placed Liverpool, but still remain many people’s favourites to retain the title.

Their title rivals Liverpool and Arsenal however, may take some hope in that Guardiola’s team have the worst goals conceded per game rate this season that they have ever had under the Spaniard. That’s including Guardiola’s first term in charge where Man City finished third. Going far in the Champions League, which many expect Man City will, could also be a distraction to league form. Nevertheless, having the duo of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland back fit and firing, as well as the potent form of Phil Foden will be radiating fear to City’s challengers. 

Man City & Liverpool level on points – how the title race would finish based on each managers ppg against remaining opponents 

With the title race so close between three great teams going into the closing stages, there’s been lots of talks of supercomputers and algorithms to try and work out who will be Premier League champion come May. And here at Transfermarkt we’ve decided to weigh in ourselves. Using stats from our database, we have calculated the average points per game ratio of each of the three managers against their seven remaining opponents in the Premier League. Those results leave Guardiola with 2.46ppg against Man City’s remaining opponents, Klopp with 2.24ppg against Liverpool’s remaining opponents, and Arteta with 1.93ppg against Arsenal’s remaining opponents.

We have then multiplied those numbers by the remaining games each clubs has left (7) and then rounded to the nearest point. It means Man City would take 17 points from the remaining 21 available, leaving them on 87 points. Liverpool would take 16 points from the remaining 21 available, but leaving them level with the Sky Blues on 87 points as they currently have a point advantage. Arsenal would then take 14 from a possible 21 points and finish third with 85 points. It’s of course still if’s and buts. However, it will be interesting to see if history repeats itself, and how much of a factor these managers historic records against the teams they play on the run-in will have on who is crowned Premier League champions next month.

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