Potential Matt O’Riley replacement – Can Celtic land Augsburg’s Arne Engels?

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Negotiations continue 

There could be some movement for Celtic in the final few days of the summer transfer window. Reports by Sky in both Germany and England indicate that the Scottish giants are pushing to sign FC Augsburg midfielder Arne Engels. According to those reports, the 20-year-old central midfielder has already agreed personal terms with Scottish champions. Furthermore, Celtic have now put all eggs in one basket as they have ended their pursuit of Polish forward Mateusz Bogusz from LAFC per Football Scotland. 

As of Wednesday, there still has been no agreement between Celtic and Augsburg. Indeed like it is the case with LAFC and Bogusz, Augsburg’s position, too, is quite clear. They want to keep the central midfielder, and the Bundesliga club is only willing to listen to offers above the player’s current market value of €9m. Augsburg are looking for a transfer fee of around €15m. A deal in that category would be among the club’s record sales. It would also be a significant profit as the Bundesliga club bought Engels for just €100,000 from Brugge one year ago. Indeed, Augsburg have earned more than €15m for a single transfer only twice in the club’s history (overview).

For Celtic, too, a transfer fee in that region would be historic. The club managed by Brendan Rodgers have paid more than €10m for a player just twice in club history. The current transfer record is held by the Portuguese winger Jota. Signed for an initial £6.4 (around €7m) from Benfica in 2022, the fee grew to €16.2m thanks to a sell-on clause in his contract. Engels could get close to that number if a transfer is agreed on before the window shuts on Friday. 

From Augsburg: Engels ready to replace O’Riley? 

There is no doubt that Celtic would like to add another piece. “The team is in a good place, mentally, tactically, how they’re playing,” Rodgers said after his side’s 3-0 win over St. Mirren on the weekend. “But we want to strengthen and have that depth. It’s taken a lot longer than I would have liked as the football manager. That’s my brutally honest answer on it. But I will repeat this. If we get them in, then there’s still a long season ahead. So, it’s important that we do get that. And I have belief that we will do.”

The urge to do something on the market has been even further accelerated after Celtic sold O’Riley to Brighton for a Scottish transfer record fee on Monday. But replacing O’Riley could be a tall order for Engels, who has managed three goals and five assists in 32 Bundesliga games last season. In comparison, O’Riley managed 19 goals and 18 assists in 49 appearances for Celitc. Although a massive talent, Engels is still a bit of a project and will need time to match that sort of production. 

Managing expectations is, therefore, important as Celtic close in on signing Engels. But beyond the actual goal production, the underlying stats highlight why Celtic are interested in the Belgian midfielder. When comparing the two players on Wyscout, Engels only slightly trends behind O’Riley in key metrics for a central midfielder. For example, over the last calendar year, O’Riley completed 70.24% of his forward passes, compared to Engels, who completed 67.47%. Where O’Riley made 0.78 key passes per 90, Engels managed 0.48. The metrics also read similarly for recoveries and passes to the final third. Indeed, the marginal difference can be explained by the fact that O’Riley played for a more dominant team in the Scottish Premiership than is the case for Engels with Augsburg in the Bundesliga. With that in mind, it makes sense that Celtic are after the Belgian midfielder, but whether they are willing to meet Augsburg’s demands is another question.