Is this the worst Man City we’ve seen under Guardiola? – The stats behind their demise

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32% loss-rate this season 

©IMAGO

When it comes with little shock that Manchester City under Pep Guardiola lose 2-0 to the team in sixth place in Serie A, or surrender a lead late on against a team who started the day 13th in the Premier League, then it’s clear something it isn’t quite right. For such a long time, football fans have become accustomed to Guardiola’s juggernauts churning out win after win, and there’s very rarely major problems within the camp. Right now, the look in disarray. City’s defeat to Juventus left them 22nd in the Champions League ‘league phase’ table, and with PSG away their next fixture there’s a distinct possibility they could even crash out of the competition, whilst their loss in the Manchester derby now leaves them in fifth in the Premier League, nine points behind the league leaders.

After the Champions League game midfielder İlkay Gündoğan, who was re-signed this summer, was scathing of his team’s performance. “At the moment it feels like every attack we concede, it’s so dangerous,” the German said. “They score on the transition every time and we have to chase every time 50, 60 metres back. That’s not what we’re built for. At the moment it’s just not working out for us.” Whilst after the defeat to Manchester United, Bernardo Silva said, “we played like U15s.” All is not well in the City team right now, and it’s unusual.

The Sky Blues have been completely dominant since Guardiola arrived in 2016 – they have won 15 trophies in nine seasons. But is the worst Man City team we have seen under the Spaniard? The absence of Rodri can’t be underestimated, and has clearly had an effect, but right now their seems to be an ever deeper rooted problem at the club. Since the start of November, only Heidenheim have conceded more goals across all competitions than Man City from Europe’s top-five leagues (23 in 11 games). A simply baffling statistic. Let’s take a look at the numbers behind Man City’s woes to see if this is indeed the worst team we’ve seen under Guardiola’s stewardship.

Supporters of other Premier League clubs have long been trying to manufacture reasons for a Manchester City fall off or drop in form, but any adversity Guardiola’s team face, usually gets shrugged off with little impact, as his winning machine of a team continues to deliver trophies. When Guardiola first arrived at City, people questioned whether his ‘tiki-taka’ style of football was suited to the Premier League – Man City were soon churning out trophies on English shores. When Man City had no striker before signing Erling Haaland, people said you can’t win a league without a recognised centre-forward – Phil Foden, Gündogan and Raheem Sterling chipped in and City lifted the Premier League trophy. When it was announced Kevin De Bruyne was injured and would miss around half of last season, people claimed that could be the boost for Arsenal or Liverpool to wrestle the title away from the Sky Blues – Man City made it four titles in a row. But right now, Guardiola’s team finally appear rattled. 

As illustrated in the graphic above, Man City’s loss percentage is by far the worst it has been under Guardiola this season. The Sky Blues have lost 32% of their matches this term – numbers alien to this team under the Spaniard. Their previous highest loss percentage was in the 2019/20 campaign, when City lost out on the league title to Liverpool, and had a loss percentage of 20.3%. Already, just 25 games into the season, Guardiola’s team have lost as many games as they did in six of his full seasons at the club. 

As we can see above, Man City’s leaky defence has been a big part of their underwhelming form this season. They have already conceded 42 goals at a rate of 1.68 goals conceded per game. In the 2020/21 season, they conceded just 42 goals across the entire campaign. Even if we look at the previous worst defensive season under Guardiola (which was last season) they still only conceded 1.12 goals per game, which is significantly better than this campaign. Stopping conceding and giving away so many chances will surely be pivotal to Man City’s success this season, but Rodri-less, they will have to start improving results quickly if they want to continue their trophy-ridden run.