Inter Milan: One of the most dominant teams in Serie A history but does trouble lie ahead?

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Can win title vs rivals AC tonight 

Inter Milan stand on the verge of winning the Scudetto tonight in historic fashion. The Nerazzurri will be crowned champions of Italy if they beat AC Milan at the San Siro tonight with Inter the away side at the iconic shared stadium. Inter hold a 14-point lead over their rivals at the top of the Serie A with six games remaining and Simone Inzaghi’s men are destined to win the title as they’ve comfortably been the best side in Italy this season.

When the title is confirmed, it will become Inter’s 20th Scudetto – one more than AC – and they will regain their title from Napoli in their second triumph in four years after Juventus’ decade of dominance. AC Milan boss Stefano Pioli has already expressed that his side are desperate to prevent their rivals from clinching the title in the derby but Inter have won the last five encounters. The lazy stereotype is that Italian football is defensive and boring but Inter defy that notion and they’ve scored the most goals and conceded the least goals in Serie A. Inzaghi has implemented a fascinating style of play but while they will celebrate another title soon, the future looks ominous. 

Why have Inter Milan been so dominant in Serie A this season? 

Until drawing 2-2 with Calgiari last weekend, Inter could have surpassed Juventus’ record points total in Serie A of 102 from the 2013-14 season. While Inter can no longer beat that achievement, they can become only the second team to surpass 100 points which is a sign of their dominance this season. Inter’s only defeat of the season arrived in September to Sassuolo and they’ve only conceded 17 goals in 32 league games – 8 less than second ranked Bologna. 

As the graphic above illustrates, Inter boast the best defensive record across the top five leagues, conceding 0.53 goals per game. They’ve also scored 14 more goals than any other Serie A club with 77 and Lautaro Martínez is the division’s top goalscorer with 23. Exiting the Champions League at the last 16 stage to Atletico Madrid was a huge disappointment after reaching the final last season but Inzaghi remains one of the most underrated coaches in Europe. 

Simone Inzaghi is one of Europe’s most underrated coaches

Inzaghi developed a reputation as an excellent cup coach at Lazio, winning the Coppa Italia and two Suppercoppas. The Italian’s impressive record in cup competitions has continued at Inter, lifting the Coppa Italia twice while adding three Suppercoppas but Inter’s run to the Champions League final solidified Inzaghi as an elite tactician. The 48-year-old is renowned for deploying a 3-5-2 formation throughout his managerial career but there has been adaptation over the years despite the continuity of two strikers and width being provided from wing-backs. 

Stefano Buonfino, Serie A expert at Transfermarkt, said: “This is the third year of the project with the same manager, even though every year there is the need of selling players for financial issues, but Inzaghi was great in finding every year a way to improve the play of the team. Last year with Andre Onana and now with Yann Sommer, he wants to keep the ball on the ground, attracting their opponents’ pressing, so as to find a way to attack fast opponents’ area.When they can’t play like this, against closest opponents, they attack the area with a lot of men, often reaching a space to occupy that is different from their initial spot.” 

There is a lot of positional flexibility within Inter Milan’s system with two central midfielders – usually two of Henrikh Mkhitaryan, Nicolò Barella or Hakan Çalhanoğlu – often dropping deepest to build attackers with the three centre-backs advancing. The perfect example of this was when Yann Aurel Bisseck scored the winner against Bologna in March after a brilliant cross from his fellow centre-back Alessandro Bastoni. Inter can also build attacks through their two wide centre-backs – usually Benjamin Pavard and Bastoni – with goalkeeper Sommer extremely comfortable on the ball. Çalhanoğlu has been a revelation at Inter, Mkhitaryan has aged brilliantly while Marcus Thuram has been the perfect replacement for Romelu Lukaku and Edin Dzeko and represented fantastic value on a free transfer.

“Simone Inzaghi for me is very underrated,” Buonfino added. “He built all this in a team that had to do player trading every year to survive, so every year he had to rebuild the team. First year he lost Lukaku, Eriksen and Hakimi, the second year Skriniar through injury then leaving on a free. This season Onana, Brozovic, Lukaku and Dzeko. His trophies as manager of Lazio and Inter says that he can follow and reach targets, even in precarious situations. Most of the time, he was able to take a player that nobody wanted in a big team and see the same player performing the best. His 3-5-2 is no more synonymous of defensive play, all players are part of a mechanism that is projected forward.”

Inter Milan’s precarious financial position warns of trouble ahead

Inter are in a precarious financial position with their debts estimated to stand at around €800 million. Inter’s chairman Steven Zhang – the face of their Chinese ownership conglomerate Suning Holdings – secured a loan from Oaktree of around €275m in 2021 to help Inter through the Covid pandemic but that needs repaid. Despite an incredibly lucrative 2022/23 season, Inter still made a substantial loss despite revenue soaring. Their losses over the last three financial years are estimated at around €470m and that’s clearly not sustainable and key players will likely depart again this summer. “Zhang can’t invest outside China and has to pay a debt to Oaktree,” Buonfino admitted. “They could take Inter like Elliott Management did with AC Milan. I don’t know what will happen, but it’s absolutely clear for Inter that it’s very difficult to rebuild every year and maintain the same level.”

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