Emile Smith Rowe on brink of €41m move to Fulham – Why have Arsenal allowed him to go?

​

Potnetial record sale for Gunners 

It’s 20 April 2022. Emile Smith Rowe has just scored a superb placed finish from the edge of the box in a 4-2 win against Chelsea at Stamford Bridge. His tenth Premier League goal of the season. The chant of ‘[Bukayo] Saka and Emile Smith Rowe’ to the tune of ‘Rockin’ all over the world’ by Status Quo rings around the away end at Stamford Bridge. If you had told Arsenal fans on that day that in two years time their no 10 would be leaving to go to Fulham for €41m, they simply would not have believed you. However, after an injury-plagued couple of seasons at the Emirates, that now looks very much the case, with David Ornstein claiming that Fulham are close to reaching an agreement with the Gunners, with Smith Rowe himself reportedly keen on the move to get regular game-time. 

During Arsenal’s infamous mid-season trip to Dubai last January, manager Mikel Arteta actually apologised for the lack of game-time he gave to Smith Rowe. “We know he’s got incredible qualities and we’re really happy to have him, we have to give him minutes,” the Spaniard berated. A few months later after Smith Rowe had started and earned man-of-the-match in a 2-0 win against Luton, Arteta said, “I love Emile Smith Rowe, he is a joy to watch.” So why hasn’t it worked out for the 23-year-old Englishmen and why are Arsenal willing to let their Hale End academy product leave the club this summer?

Why has it not worked out for Emile Smith Rowe at Arsenal?

When we look at the graphic above, we can see that after two very strong campaigns in the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons, when he really broke into Arteta’s team and made his name, the last two seasons have been very disappointing. Whilst other factors have of course come into play, the main reason for that drop off comes down to one thing – injuries. Over the last two seasons alone, Smith Rowe has missed 31 Arsenal games through injury. And a persistent groin issue has been undermining his career from an early age. According to Transfermarkt’s statistics, he has missed 137 games through injury in the last 5 seasons – that’s actually more than the 115 appearances he’s made for the Arsenal first-team.

Back in 2021, former Liverpool defender turned pundit Jamie Carragher said, “He’s the best player I’ve seen in the Premier League running with the ball. Running with both feet, the pace he goes at, it’s just a joy to watch when he’s moving with the ball.” That dribbling ability combined with the final product he was showing at the time earned Smith Rowe an England call up in November 2021, and he scored in his second cap against San Marino. The world looked like it was at his feet. However, as Arsenal have improved and begun challenging Manchester City for the Premier League title, a player with Smith Rowe’s injury record just simply cannot be relied on. Despite still being a fan favourite, it could ultimately bring an end to his 13 year stay at his boyhood club.

Why are Arsenal willing to let Emile Smith Rowe leave?

Over the past four and half seasons since Arteta has been in charge, Arsenal have spent €706.8m. In that same period they recouped just €143.6m from player sales, leaving them with a net spend of €563.2m. Arsenal’s hierarchy have done a good job in recent years of getting players on huge salaries off the wage bill such as Mesut Özil and Pierre-Emerick Aubameyang. This, along with targeting payment structures which have allowed Arsenal to spread payments for players over longer periods, have enabled the club to spend big.

However, the club are now at the stage of their development and project in which they need to start being financially sustainable and balancing the books by getting reasonable fees for players on the fringes. Offering pure profit as an academy graduate, the sale of Smith Rowe may just be a sacrifice the club have to make. A ruthless decision, but perhaps the correct one given the trajectory of the project at the club. The mooted fee of €41m would make Smith Rowe Arsenal’s record sale, eclipsing the €38m Liverpool paid for Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain in 2017. His versatility to play off the left-wing or in central attacking roles will be seen as a huge plus-point to Marco Silva. If Fulham can keep him fit, they might just have a bargain on their hands, but the main fear will continue to be Smith-Rowe’s injury record.