Crisis at Manchester City – Why Pep Guardiola must embark on a major rebuild

​

Seven games without a win  

©TM/IMAGO

Liverpool went into Sunday’s showdown against Manchester City at Anfield as favourites but the way in which they dominated Pep Guardiola’s team in their 2-0 victory further enhanced the argument that this City team are far from their best and need a major rebuild. The capitulation against Tottenham Hotspur had sent alarm bells ringing around the Etihad the previous weekend. The Premier League champions are now on their longest streak without a win since Guardiola arrived in 2016 – they haven’t won since they beat Southampton at the Etihad back in October.

Guardiola has dominated English football since his arrival but he’s arguably never been under more scrutiny across his incredible managerial career. He recently committed his future to the club by signing a new contract. City made history last season by winning an unprecedented fourth consecutive Premier League title but they now trail leaders Liverpool by 11 points, and winning a fifth title in-a-row would now require a miracle. So what has gone wrong?

What is going wrong at Manchester City?

Guardiola had never lost four games in a row before losing to Brighton before the international break, but that was then extended to five after defeat after the loss to Tottenham. Moreover, it equalled Guardiola’s highest-ever defeat with the Spanish master only losing 4-0 on three previous occasions. Feyenoord’s visit in the Champions League on Tuesday night should have got City back to winning ways, but it’s now extended to seven games without a win after the defeat at Anfield. No club has ever won the league from being 11 points behind at this stage of the season.

City’s squad remains the second most valuable in the world on Transfermarkt but there’s clear problems in their set-up and Rodri’s absence has been pivotal. City’s midfield balance is well off and they are far easier to play through as Tottenham and Liverpool have highlighted. As the graphic below illustrates, there’s a distinct downturn in City’s stats from this season compared to last. Their win ratio has dropped from 75% to 43% and loss ratio has increased from 12% to 29%. While City are also scoring less per game, conceding more goals per game and their points per game record has dropped by 0.52. 

City have conceded 19 goals in the league, which is the more than 17th placed Crystal Palace and 11 more than Liverpool while there’s also been issues in attack. Erling Haaland’s productivity has dropped considerably from his usual insane output. Since famously telling Mikel Arteta to “stay humble” after the draw with Arsenal, Haaland has only scored two goals from a combined xG of 8.03 across eight Premier League games. They remain far too over-reliant on Haaland for goals and the Norwegian has had 37 shots on target this season, with City’s next highest being Joško Gvardiol with seven.

Do Manchester City need a rebuild with an ageing squad?

It was widely reported that Guardiola received assurances that he would be significantly backed in the transfer window before penning a new deal and there could be a rebuild on the horizon at Man City. The 53-year-old, however, rejected this notion when asked about it after the recent defeat to Spurs, stating: “I think, when all the squad is there, it’s exceptional. I would not be, from my voice or my words, saying that the team is not good. But the team is not ready here, this is a little bit of the problem that we have in this period.”

Whether or not Guardiola truly believes his squad doesn’t need reconstruction, there’s no denying that City’s squad is ageing with several key players in their thirties. As the graphic above illustrates, seven important first team players are 30 or older with only Mateo Kovacic contracted beyond 2026 – Guardiola’s contract ends in 2027. So the Spaniard clearly faces major decisions over key players and the composition of City’s squad could look extremely different next season and beyond. Kyle Walker has shown signs of slowing down, Kevin De Bruyne has had issues staying fit, and Bernardo Silva has endured a poor campaign.

Since Sheikh Mansour’s takeover in 2008, Manchester City have been synonymous with vast spending and their total expenditure stands at €2.86 billion – only Chelsea have spent more since the Abu Dhabi takeover. City required huge investment to reach the pinnacle of European football but they’ve actually been fairly measured across recent seasons. Since the start of the 2022/23 campaign, City’s spending (€440m) ranks ninth and their net spend of just €15m ranks 81st across the world. When analysing City’s future, it’s imperative to highlight the impending court ruling in their battle with the Premier League, but if they are successful then Guardiola will be empowered with a substantial transfer budget and he will surely need to refresh his squad to continue their success.