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Done Deal 31.08.2024 – 01:48
| source: Transfermarkt |
Reading Time: 3 mins

 

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Done Deal 30.08.2024 – 13:44
| source: Transfermarkt |
Reading Time: 2 mins

 

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Anfield austerity 

This summer’s transfer window has been an unusual one for a number of reasons but perhaps the oddest aspect of it from a Premier League point of view is the manner in which two of the three best teams in the English top-flight have hardly spent any money. While Arsenal have spent around €109 million on signing new players, Manchester City and Liverpool have so far spent between them just €67m on signing new players, while making a remarkable income of €188m on player sales. This, perhaps, isn’t a massive surprise for Pep Guardiola’s star-studded side. After all, only Real Madrid can lay claim to a more valuable squad than the English champions and if the last five Premier League seasons are anything to go by, there’s only so much you can add to perfection. But something else entirely is going on at Anfield, where new manager Arne Slot has shown no interest at all in spending money on new players, aside from the arrival of winger Federico Chiesa for a paltry sum and goalkeeper Giorgi Mamardashvili, who won’t even join the club until next season. So why haven’t Liverpool spent any money this summer? 

Perhaps the most obvious reason behind Liverpool’s austere approach to this summer’s transfer window is simply down to the fact that Slot feels as though he has inherited a ready-made squad from Jürgen Klopp that’s still capable of challenging for major silverware. As fans of the Anfield club will remember, Klopp’s team did well to keep pace with Man City and Liverpool until about two-thirds of the way through the league campaign, where injuries and fatigue began to take their toll. Indeed, over the course of the campaign, key players like Alisson, Andy Robertson, Trent Alexander-Arnold and Diogo Jota all missed large chunks of the league season. And rather than sign new players this summer to replace them, Slot simply may be expecting these players to play a bigger role for the club this time around. But there may also be a financial reason behind Liverpool’s lack of signings. 

When we consider Liverpool’s activity in the transfer market during Klopp’s time at the club, it certainly suggests that the Anfield side spent a large amount of money on players to rebuild the squad prior to the German manager departing the club. As the graph above shows, Liverpool’s outgoing on player signings and income from player sales more or less followed similar paths between 2015/16 and 2019/20, with the club’s net spend in the transfer window over those five seasons amounting to just €119m. But in the following four years, leading up to Klopp departing the club, money spent on new players far exceeded income from player sales to the tune of a much higher figure of €305m. And while that figure may pale in comparison to what Chelsea, Manchester United or Arsenal’s net spend was during that period of time, it certainly points to the club investing in new players to rebuild the squad. And, perhaps rather crucially, suggests that Liverpool may be intent on getting the most out of the players they’ve already signed, while looking to cover their losses in the transfer market by winning silverware or selling players down the line. Which explains why Slot hasn’t been handed a blank cheque book this summer. 

 

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Draw tonight 

The new Champions League format will be introduced this season with the draw for the 2024/25 league phase taking place this evening – 5pm UK time. The most prestigious club tournament has been restructured with a new 36-team league format replacing the group stages, featuring 32 teams. 

All participating clubs have been divided into four pots of nine based on their coefficient points and each club will play eight games in the league face – two from each pot, one home and one away. The top 8 clubs will qualify automatically with the teams finishing between positions nine and 24 entering a play-off for the remaining eight places in the last-16 phase. But who are the most valuable clubs in the Champions League this season and how do clubs rank in their pots? Let’s find out. 

Pot 1 

The holders Real Madrid are the most valuable team in the competition at €1.34b. The Spanish giants deservedly beat Borussia Dortmund in last year’s final at Wembley to be crowned king of Europe for the 15th time. Manchester City are the second most valuable club in the competition and pot 1 at €1.27b. German clubs are the most represented nations in Pot 1 with three clubs – Bayern Munich, RB Leipzig and Dortmund – featuring. 

Pot 2

Only three clubs in the world have a squad valued at over €1 billion with Arsenal joining Man City and Real Madrid. Mikel Arteta’s men are the most valuable team in Pot 2 with their €1.2b valuation almost double second placed Bayer Leverkusen. Italian teams performed exceptionally in European competition with three clubs – AC Milan, Juventus and Atalanta – in pot 2.

Pot 3 

No club in Pot 3 is valued at more than €400m with Portuguese champions Sporting CP the most valuable at €396m. Scottish Champions Celtic will be aiming to improve their dreadful recent european record and they famously lifted the European Cup in 1967. Three clubs’ squads – Zagreb, Red Star and Young Boys – are valued under €100m.

Pot 4 

Aston Villa secured their return to the Champions League by securing a stunning fourth placed finish in the Premier League season. Despite being in Pot 4, Villa’s squad is more valuable than any club in Pot 3. Bologna will participate in the Champions League for the first time in their history, as will Spanish side Girona.

 

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Negotiations continue 

There could be some movement for Celtic in the final few days of the summer transfer window. Reports by Sky in both Germany and England indicate that the Scottish giants are pushing to sign FC Augsburg midfielder Arne Engels. According to those reports, the 20-year-old central midfielder has already agreed personal terms with Scottish champions. Furthermore, Celtic have now put all eggs in one basket as they have ended their pursuit of Polish forward Mateusz Bogusz from LAFC per Football Scotland. 

As of Wednesday, there still has been no agreement between Celtic and Augsburg. Indeed like it is the case with LAFC and Bogusz, Augsburg’s position, too, is quite clear. They want to keep the central midfielder, and the Bundesliga club is only willing to listen to offers above the player’s current market value of €9m. Augsburg are looking for a transfer fee of around €15m. A deal in that category would be among the club’s record sales. It would also be a significant profit as the Bundesliga club bought Engels for just €100,000 from Brugge one year ago. Indeed, Augsburg have earned more than €15m for a single transfer only twice in the club’s history (overview).

For Celtic, too, a transfer fee in that region would be historic. The club managed by Brendan Rodgers have paid more than €10m for a player just twice in club history. The current transfer record is held by the Portuguese winger Jota. Signed for an initial £6.4 (around €7m) from Benfica in 2022, the fee grew to €16.2m thanks to a sell-on clause in his contract. Engels could get close to that number if a transfer is agreed on before the window shuts on Friday. 

From Augsburg: Engels ready to replace O’Riley? 

There is no doubt that Celtic would like to add another piece. “The team is in a good place, mentally, tactically, how they’re playing,” Rodgers said after his side’s 3-0 win over St. Mirren on the weekend. “But we want to strengthen and have that depth. It’s taken a lot longer than I would have liked as the football manager. That’s my brutally honest answer on it. But I will repeat this. If we get them in, then there’s still a long season ahead. So, it’s important that we do get that. And I have belief that we will do.”

The urge to do something on the market has been even further accelerated after Celtic sold O’Riley to Brighton for a Scottish transfer record fee on Monday. But replacing O’Riley could be a tall order for Engels, who has managed three goals and five assists in 32 Bundesliga games last season. In comparison, O’Riley managed 19 goals and 18 assists in 49 appearances for Celitc. Although a massive talent, Engels is still a bit of a project and will need time to match that sort of production. 

Managing expectations is, therefore, important as Celtic close in on signing Engels. But beyond the actual goal production, the underlying stats highlight why Celtic are interested in the Belgian midfielder. When comparing the two players on Wyscout, Engels only slightly trends behind O’Riley in key metrics for a central midfielder. For example, over the last calendar year, O’Riley completed 70.24% of his forward passes, compared to Engels, who completed 67.47%. Where O’Riley made 0.78 key passes per 90, Engels managed 0.48. The metrics also read similarly for recoveries and passes to the final third. Indeed, the marginal difference can be explained by the fact that O’Riley played for a more dominant team in the Scottish Premiership than is the case for Engels with Augsburg in the Bundesliga. With that in mind, it makes sense that Celtic are after the Belgian midfielder, but whether they are willing to meet Augsburg’s demands is another question.

 

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71 players in total 

The Premier League is unquestionably the richest league in the world, which means that the members of the English top-flight are able to spend the most amount of money on new players and gather up the most valuable players in the world. This is not only evident through the simple fact that the division has so far spent around €2.03 billion on new players this summer, but also clear to see when we consider that the total market value of the division stands at a remarkable €11.77b – which is more than twice the market value of the next best league. But not all of the players that make up that figure are well-known stars or even regular starters for their club and in many cases Premier League clubs keep a number of exceptional players on their books but have opted to send them out on loan for this coming season. So which English top-flight clubs have the most players out on loan this season?

In total, the complete list of players on loan from Premier League clubs this season have a combined market value of €509m. Which, if they all belonged to one club, would make them the eleventh most valuable squad in English football. Although a number of deals will likely go through before the end of the transfer window on Friday, as things currently stand the club with the most players out on loan right now are none other than Chelsea. To no great surprise, the Stamford Bridge side have loaned out eight first team players, narrowly beating Aston Villa and Brighton to the top of the list. The most valuable player among the Chelsea departures is Lesley Ugochukwu (market value: €25m), who has joined Southampton and Andrey Santos (€15m) who has joined Strasbourg. Just three Premier League clubs – Everton, Newcastle United and Manchester United – haven’t loaned out a single first team player this summer.

 

When it comes to which clubs have shifted the most market value out of their squad this summer, there’s once again no great surprises to be found. While Chelsea have moved on the most number of players, Manchester City can lay claim to the most cumulative market value of players with Yan Couto, Kalvin Phillips and Máximo Perrone all making temporary moves away from the club but boasting a combined market value of €59m. That figure is likely to increase in the coming days with Matheus Nunes (€50m) expected to leave the club on loan before the end of the week. Behind the reigning champions are none other than the aformentioned Stamford Bridge club, whose loaned out players are worth a combined €63m. Right behind Chelsea in third place are Arsenal, who have allowed Albert Sambi Lokonga, Nuno Tavares, Karl Hein and most recently Fábio Vieira all to depart the club on loan with a combined market value of €54m. 

 

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Set to sign 

After more than 160 appearances for his boyhood club, Eddie Nketiah seems finally set to depart Arsenal as a move away from the North London club is reportedly on the verge of completion. According to the Athletic, Premier League side Crystal Palace are close to agreeing a deal with Arsenal that will see the 25-year-old talent depart in a deal worth a reported €35 million – with €30m being paid up-front and an additional €5m in add-ons. The move will take Arsenal’s income from player sales this summer to €61m and their net spend in the transfer window to just €15.1m. 

E. Nketiah

Centre-Forward

Arsenal

?

Crystal Palace

Premier League

Premier League

Over the course of the last eight seasons, Nketiah has made a name for himself as an exciting attacking prospect, with a clear eye for goal. Although the young forward departs Arsenal having never nailed down a consistent starting role in Mikel Arteta’s team, his record of 19 goals and five assists in 4,096 minutes of Premier League football gives him a solid average of 0.53 goals and assists per 90 minutes of league football. And it’s that eye for goal that has kept him at Arsenal long after he was still considering a young prospect and clearly what has enticed Palace to make an offer for him before the end of this summer’s transfer window. Should Nketiah depart Arsenal for the proposed €35m fee, he’ll become the north London club’s joint-second most valuable sale ever, sitting alongside Nicolas Anelka’s 1999 move to Real Madrid, ahead of Alexis Sánchez’s €34m move to Manchester United in 2017 and just behind Alex Oxlade-Chamberlain’s €38m move to Liverpool in 2017. 

Nketiah likely makes the move to Palace in pursuit of regular first team football and he’s likely to find it in Oliver Glasner’s side. After selling Michael Olise and Jordan Ayew, Palace are in desperate need of additional firepower with just Jean-Philippe Mateta and Odsonne Edouard to pick from as the only striker’s in Glasner’s squad at this moment in time. Although both are considered established Premier League talents, Nketiah’s proposed move to the club will make him Palace’s most expensive signing ever, surpassing the €31.2m the club paid for Christian Benteke in 2016. However, due to the fact that Palace have already sold the aforementioned Olise and Ayew, as well as Joachim Andersen for a combined €88.8m, even a record fee for Nketiah would still keep the club’s net spend at a positive €23.8m due to the number of sales to date and the likelihood of more stars departing before the transfer window draws to a close. 

 

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€35 market value 

It’s been a difficult few years for Federico Chiesa and his time at Juventus appears over with Liverpool now looking like a possible destination as the transfer window remains open for just a few more days. On Monday, Fabrizio Romano reported that Liverpool made an initial approach to sign the winger from Juventus. With Juve looking to sell and Chiesa keen on a Premier League move, Liverpool are now exploring the conditions for a potential transfer. 

But how did we get here? The 26-year-old suffered a serious knee injury in January 2022 and he’s struggled to reach his peak level of performance since his return. Chiesa was widely regarded as one of the most exciting wingers in Europe before his injury and he starred as Italy won Euro 2021 – he was named in the team of the tournament. New Juventus manager Thiago Motta didn’t include Chiesa in his squad for the pre-season trip to Germany with the Old Lady looking to cash in this summer with the winger entering the final year of his contract. 

Why do Juventus want to sell Federico Chiesa? 

Juventus are embracing a new era under Motta with the former Italian international arriving in Turin after successfully leading Bologna to Champions League qualification last season. The most successful club in Italy haven’t won the title since the 2019/20 season but they’ll return to the Champions League after not featuring in European football’s most prestigious competition last season. Juventus’ transfer record across the last few years has been poor and they’ve actively targeted younger players this summer as they look to transform their squad with Douglas Luiz, Khéphren Thuram and Juan Cabal already arriving. Despite featuring 33 times last season, Chiesa isn’t considered an integral part of Juventus’ project and is ill-suited to Motta’s style, despite being their fourth most valuable player. Juventus want to sell Chiesa this summer due to his high wages and to avoid losing him on a free next summer as Transfermarkt Italian area manager Stefano Buonfino explains.

 “Chiesa hasn’t been able to play at his best at Juventus for different reasons ” admits Buonfino. “First of all, his bad injury was a major setback and even when he got back, it affected him for many months. Also mentally, Chiesa didn’t seem to fully trust his body after the injury. Then, he played most of the time as a support striker, which isn’t his best position because he’s clearly better as a winger. Because of these factors, Chiesa isn’t considered as one of Juventus’ best players and he has a very high salary that they don’t want to pay as they adapt their approach. So Chiesa and Juventus are considering a transfer now as he wants to be an important player and Juventus could earn some money.”

Which clubs are interested in signing Federico Chiesa? 

Chiesa is attracting interest from clubs across Europe but with the transfer window winding down, it now appears that Liverpool are the most interested club in the Italian with Fabrizio Romano reporting initial talks on Monday. It’s understood that Juventus want around €20 million to sell the winger this summer and those demands won’t deter potential suitors, although his salary demands could. Juventus won’t recoup the €44.6m they paid for Chiesa but there’s a serious risk they could lose him for free as the Italian international could decide to see out his contract to enhance his potential earning possibilities as a free agent. Inter Milan want to sign Chiesa on a free transfer next summer, while Roma would also explore a deal if the winger ran his contract down.

Buonfino added: “A major factor will be if Chiesa is considering leaving now or whether he wants to wait until next year to take the best from the situation – in terms of money and of choosing his preferred team. There are clubs that work in the shadows and probably want to sign him as a free agent. Inter is probably the first club that works in the shadows and Gisueppe Marotta is famous for doing the best with free agents. Chiesa is a big opportunity for Inter in terms of what he can offer but also because  he could be ‘stolen’ from a rival.”

How concerning is Federico Chiesa’s injury record? 

The ACL injury that Chiesa suffered against Roma in January 2022 has been debilitating for his career. It kept him out for seven months and he missed 57 games across the 2021/22 season in total. Since returning from injury, Chiesa has suffered muscular injuries related to his initial problem and he missed 16 games in 2022/23 and 11 games last season. The Italian, however, scored nine goals last campaign which represented his highest goal return in one season at Juventus. But there are legitimate concerns that Chiesa has been unable to perform to his highest levels since suffering his ACL injury but his unquestionable ability will still attract interest from major European clubs.

 

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€32m market value 

It looks as though a transfer story which has rumbled on throughout the summer may be coming to its conclusion. Napoli have reportedly reached an agreement with Manchester United to sign Scottish midfielder Scott McTominay. The Athletic reported that a fee in the region of €30 million has been settled on, and United would also receive a share of any future sale from the Italian side. The proposed deal is subject to all parties being satisfied with the player’s terms. McTominay boasts a current market value of €32m, and is the Premier League sides’s fourth most valuable midfielder.

⁠McTominay’s Man United contracts runs until 2025, with the Red Devils also having an option to extend that by 12 months. As an academy graduate, McTominay’s sale would represent ‘pure profit’ and that makes this situation important for United’s compliance with the Premier League’s Profit and Sustainability laws and UEFA financial rules. ⁠The deal going through would likely give United the license to bring in PSG holding midfielder Manuel Ugarte, who has been a target throughout the summer. Ugarte has a market value of €45m, and joined the Parisians from Sporting last summer for €60m, but is now viewed as surplus to requirements to Luis Enrique’s team.

Napoli sporting director Giovanni Manna has held exhaustive talks in London and Manchester this week, as the Serie A side work to secure the Scotland international’s signature, Chelsea’s Romelu Lukaku and Brighton’s Billy Gilmour. Last season McTominay enjoyed his best ever goalscoring season, scoring 10 goals in 43 games for Man United. He was also Scotland’s only goalscorer at Euro 2024, and has scored eight goals for his nation since March 2023. The Red Devils have already sold seven players for a fee this summer, bringing in a combined €66.1m, whilst they have spent €164.5m on new arrivals.

 

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€80m spent on new players 

Despite an impressive opening-day win over Crystal Palace, Brentford go into Sunday’s clash against Liverpool at Anfield fully aware of the fact that every point counts in this season’s Premier League. After an impressive debut season in the top-flight in 2021/22, when Thomas Frank’s side finished thirteenth on 46 points, only to then go one step further and finish ninth the following campaign on 59 points, Brentford then slumped down to sixteenth last season with a points tally that had them sitting precariously close to the bottom three. This season, perhaps more than any other, will be the one that proves whether the club and their highly-regarded head coach can bounce back from adversity and climb back into the top half of the table or are destined to fall as quickly as they once rose. And to no great surprise, that could all come down to the club’s business in the transfer market. 

So far this summer, Brentford have spent no less than €80 million on new players – the highest amount the club have spent in their history – with the signing of Liverpool pair Fábio Carvalho and Sepp van den Berg, alongside new centre forward Igor Thiago from Club Brugge. Not only that, but the new signings also make up three of the club’s top five most expensive transfers ever. And there’s every chance that the club may add to that tally if star striker Ivan Toney is sold in the coming days, especially when we consider that the aforementioned new striker, Thiago, recently picked up an injury that will rule him out of action until “late 2024” according to the club. To no great surprise, the club have spent big in the hope of getting back up the league table. But what should bring hope to fans of the Bees is that each of their new signings is a young player with bags of potential. And if there’s one thing that Frank and Brentford have proved over the last three seasons, it’s that they know how to develop unproven prospects into Premier League stars. 

Indeed, when it comes to buying low and developing players into bigger stars, there are few clubs in the Premier League that are as good at it as Brentford. When we tally up the market value increases of each player in Frank’s squad since they joined the club it comes to a total figure of +€192m. And as we can see in the table above, that’s the fifth best return for overall market value on squad players in the entire English top-flight. However, when we consider how much of a percentage increase that is we can see that Brentford’s players have increased by a combined 45% – which is the highest return in the division and well above the likes of Brighton, Aston Villa or Liverpool. In other words, no club is as effective at developing talents and in the process adding market value to their players as Brentford have been in recent years. 

When we take a look through Frank’s squad we can find plenty of examples to showcase this. The most obvious one is, of course, Toney, whose market value has increased by a remarkable €49.6m since he made the move to Brentford in 2020. But the striker is certainly not alone in enjoying his time in west London. As we can see in the table above, Bryan Mbeumo has seen his market value increase by €36.5m, Mathias Jensen’s has increased by €25.5m and Vitaly Janelt (+€21.4m), Rico Henry (+€18.7m) and Yoane Wissa (+€18m) have all enjoyed similar rises. Not only will these numbers encourage fans in the hope that Frank can get the best out of aforementioned trio of new signings this season, but it also underlines what makes Brentford such an impressive club: they know how to identify impressive young players to sign but also have a head coach in Frank that knows how to develop them despite working in the high-pressure environment that is the Premier League. 

This has allowed Brentford to punch above their weight off the pitch and as a result pick up more points on it. Since winning promotion to the Premier League, the London club have spent €239.8m on new signings, which ranks them seventeenth among all clubs in England in that period – most notably behind clubs like Southampton, Leeds United and Burnley who have experienced relegation in that time. And when we consider the club’s spending over the last three seasons and the points they won in each of those campaigns, Brentford’s cost per point won is really quite impressive. In their first season in the top-flight they ranked seventh with €5.75m spent per point won, then rose to second in the 22/23 campaign with just €4.47m spent per point. And even though they perhaps underperformed in the previous season, Frank’s side still ranked sixth in the league for the lowest amount of money spent per point won, having spent €6.77m. Should they continue that impressive trend of being one of the most efficient Premier League clubs on and off the pitch, there’s little doubt that Frank and his team will bounce back and be aiming for another top-half finish in the league this season.