Will Chelsea’s shocking Premier League run cost them Champions League?

​

Maresca under pressure 

©TM/IMAGO

The race for Champions League football is destined to go down to the wire in the Premier League. The English top-flight will receive five places for the most prestigious club competition in the world next season due to European performance of clubs this campaign. Liverpool are champions-elect and Arsenal are realistically guaranteed a place in the Champions League, but as many as eight clubs are battling for the remaining three places. 

In December, Chelsea were being talked up as potential title challengers after their excellent start to the season under Enzo Maresca. Cole Palmer was unstoppable, Moisés Caicedo was replicating his form at Brighton and Nicolas Jackson was firing in the goals. Although they occupy fourth spot currently, Chelsea’s form has nosedived and they are winless in eight away games in the Premier League – their worst run in over 20 years. But it’s not just the Stamford Bridge club’s away form that has sparked concern, so could they now miss out on the Champions League?

Chelsea’s worrying away form analysed

Chelsea should have beaten Brentford on Sunday but were held to a goalless draw as their worrying away form continued. Maresca’s decision not to start talisman Palmer or Jackson raised eyebrows and it ultimately proved to be unwise. As the graphic below illustrates, Chelsea have failed to win in their last eight away games in the league, losing five of those matches and drawing three.

Additionally, Chelsea have failed to score in five of those games, including unacceptable defeats to Brighton and Ipswich. At the turn of the year, Chelsea looked certain to secure a top-four place even if Maresca, in hindsight, was correct to repeatedly insist that his side weren’t involved in the title race. But Chelsea’s away form desperately needs to be addressed and they’ve got three tough fixtures on the road remaining against Fulham, Newcastle and Nottingham Forest – three clubs that hold Champions League ambitions.

Chelsea: From title talk to Champions League concern

Chelsea’s dismal eight game winless run on the road started with a goalless stalemate against Everton at Goodison Park on December 22nd. Heading into that game on matchday 17, Chelsea sat second in the league table, just three points off leaders Liverpool and four points ahead of Arsenal. But as the graphic below illustrates, Chelsea rank 14th in the form table since matchday 17 and it’s led to significant criticism over Maresca’s management.

The Blues have only picked up 16 points from 15 games – an average of 1.06 points per game, compared to 2.13 in their opening 16 games. Chelsea have picked up as many points as Bournemouth, Brentford and Everton across their last 15 games and with a tough fixture list ahead, Maresca’s men could miss out on the finances of Champions League football, which was unfathomable just a few months ago.