Thomas Tuchel’s ageing, faltering stars – What’s gone wrong at Bayern Munich this season?

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Set to face Arsenal 

Historically speaking, Bayern Munich’s coming opponents in this week’s Champions League quarter-finals couldn’t have been more ideal. Over the course of the last six showdowns between Bayern and Arsenal in the Champions League, the Bundesliga side have won four, drawn one and lost only one, racking up an aggregate score of 18-6. But those games took place between seven and 10 years ago. And a lot has changed at both clubs in that period of time. 

Indeed, the Bayern team that arrives at the Emirates Stadium on Tuesday will not only be one that has thrown away the league title race in Germany with just nine wins in their last 15 league games – and a notably disappointing 3-2 defeat to recently-promoted Heidenheim on Saturday – but also one that has already agreed to part ways with head coach Thomas Tuchel at the end of the season. In no uncertain terms, the Champions League is Bayern’s last hope of redemption, before the club and their manager part ways in May. 

With a sixteen point gap between Bayern and Bundesliga lead leaders Bayer Leverkusen clear for all to see, it’s not hard to understand why the Munich giants are far from content with how they’ve played this season. And when we look at Tuchel’s personal record since making the move to Bayern in March 2023, we can see where the former Chelsea and Paris Saint-Germain tactician has struggled. So far, in all competitions, Tuchel has averaged just 2.00 points per game. That is not only a 13% drop in his predecessor Julian Naglemann’s record (2.31), but it’s also a 21% drop in what Hansi Flick averaged (2.53) before he departed the club at the end of the 2020/21 season. As such, it’s not hard to see why Bayern seem to have gone backwards on the pitch, since they won the Champions League under Flick in 2020. 

Such has been Bayern’s demise in recent years that it is hard to separate the club’s larger issues from what Tuchel should take blame for over the course of the last 12 months. When we consider the market value trends in the Munich squad since Tuchel took charge, we can see that a number of star players have seen a real nosedive in performances. For example, players like Dayot Upamecano (-€10m drop in value), Alphonso Davies (-€10m), Serge Gnabry (-€20m), Joshua Kimmich (-€20m) and Leon Goretzka (-€35m) have all struggled in recent years, despite all being at certain ages that should suggest they are at the peak of their powers. Which, itself, would suggest that Tuchel has struggled to get the best out of said players. 

However, as the graphic above also illustrates, Bayern have also seen a number of key players like Manuel Neuer (-€7m) and Thomas Müller (-€8m) also drop value for poor performances but most notably the fact that both German internationals are now 38 and 34 years old respectively. And this has been a trend that has gotten worse in recent years at the Allianz Arena. Over the course of the last five seasons, the average age of Bayern’s squad has increased by 13% from 23.7 to 26.7. Such has been the drastic rise in age that when Flick won the Champions League with his team they were the third youngest in the Bundesliga. And, in stark contrast, this season’s squad is the third oldest in the German top-flight. And notably higher than Arsenal’s own average for this season, which stands at just 25.6.

Age alone isn’t a disadvantage and more often than not experience can be invaluable in competitions like the Champions League. But in Bayern’s case, it seems as though the club have been reluctant to replace the stars that once made them the best in Europe but have since struggled to live up the high standards they set themselves in 2021. Of the 11 players that started the 20/21 Champions League final against PSG, no less than seven are still regular starters for Bayern. Perhaps once Tuchel departs the club this summer, the club may need to consider whether a number of their once famed stars need to move on to and allow the German giants to rebuild their squad and get back to where they’re used to being in European football. 

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