Five points separate 1st & 3rd – Arsenal, Man City & Liverpool fight it out in climactic title race

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Arsenal lead the way 

This Premier League season is set go down as one for the ages. The division has already smashed the record for the most goals scored in a Premier League campaign. Last season actually held the previous accolade with 1084 goals, but there have already been 1,096 goals this term with 44 games still left to play. If this term continues with the same scoring rate we have seen so far for the run-in, it’s on course for there to be well over 1,200 goals.

We have been treated to some sensational games of football. Chelsea 4-4 Manchester City, Brighton’s 4-2 win against Tottenham, and Manchester United’s 3-2 comeback victory against Aston Villa are just some of the enthralling encounters witnessed. There have been numerous games and storylines you simply can’t take your eyes off. And the title race looks like it’s going to be one of the most thrilling climactic battles in years.

The Premier League title contenders 

There’s three games to go (four for Man City) and everything to play for. Three teams, who all boast very different qualities will fight it out, although for one team it might be too little too late now. A new look Arsenal currently lead the way, and are vying to win their first title in 20 years under Mikel Arteta, who would become the first ever boss to win the Premier League in his first managerial job. Then come the trophy juggernauts Man City just one point behind with a game in hand. They have won the last three titles under Pep Guardiola, and would become the first ever team to win the English top flight four times in a row if they were to be victorious once again. The 2019/20 champions Liverpool are now five points behind the Gunners, and look all but our of the race, but will still be doing everything possible to help legendary manger Jürgen Klopp bow out with another Premier League title. Three different, but mesmeric stories could be written over the next few weeks.

Arsenal – 80 points

Remaining games – Bournemouth (H), Man United (A), Everton (H)

Arsenal were top of the Premier League for 248 days last season, but ultimately a late capitulation meant they couldn’t get over the line in a season where they had been massively overachieving under Arteta. This season they have largely been the chasers. Sloppy points dropped against West Ham and Fulham before the turn of the year left the Gunners behind. However, since the winter break they look right at the top of their game. Arsenal have scored 48 goals and conceded just eight in their 14 league games this calendar year.

Arsenal have the best defensive record in the entire Premier League, built around the axis of William Saliba, Gabriel and Declan Rice. They’ve conceded just 28 goals all season. In the first half of the campaign scoring was an issue, with many believing Arteta’s team don’t have the natural goalscorer to get them over the line. Although their chance conversion rate has increased drastically in recent months, and it will need to continue in that vein. The North London side also still have a tough away trip to Manchester United to navigate in their run-in, and know even winning all of their remaining fixtures won’t be enough if Man City are faultless on their own run-in.

Man City – 79 points

Remaining fixtures – Wolves (H), Fulham (A), Spurs (A), West Ham (H)

It’s getting to that stage of the season, where everybody knows what to expect from Guardiola’s City. Wins, wins and more wins. Last season, the Sky Blues went on a 12 game winning run to wrestle the title from Arsenal. A few years back it was the same story, as they made up a seven point deficit on Liverpool in the 2018/19 season, winning all of their last 10 matches. They are currently a point behind the leaders Arsenal, but with a game in hand are now firm favourites to retain the title. Four wins from four and they are champions again.

Their title rivals Arsenal and Liverpool (to a lesser extent) however, may take some hope in that Guardiola’s team have the worst goals conceded per game rate this season that they have ever had under the Spaniard. That’s including Guardiola’s first term in charge where Man City finished third. Their recent defeat to Real Madrid in the Champions League could also deflate the team. Nevertheless, having the duo of Kevin De Bruyne and Erling Haaland back fit and firing, as well as the potent form of Phil Foden will be radiating fear to City’s challengers.

Liverpool – 75 points

Remaining fixtures – Spurs, (H), Aston Villa (A), Wolves (H)

Liverpool have now lost four Premier League games this season – two in the last three games, and have won just one of their five matches. The defeat to Tottenham back in May was mired in controversy after a VAR error denied a Luis Díaz goal. The other at Arsenal slightly more worrying for Liverpool as they were outclassed by the Gunners. However, on the whole, Liverpool have looked closer to their energetic best this season with a rejuvenated midfield after the additions of Alexis Mac Allister and Dominik Szoboszlai. They’ve already lifted the first domestic silverware of the season, winning the EFL Cup with a depleted squad.

After the news emerged in January that manager Klopp would be stepping down at the end of the season after nine years at the helm, the motivation to win it for the German will be sky high from both the players and the fans. However, their recent implosion which has seen them lose to Atalanta in their Europa League quarter-final, and lose the Meryseyside derby may have some supporters only hoping now rather than expecting. 

Man City champions – how the title race would finish based on each managers ppg against remaining opponents 

With the title race so close between three great teams going into the closing stages, there’s been lots of talks of supercomputers and algorithms to try and work out who will be Premier League champion come May. And here at Transfermarkt we’ve decided to weigh in ourselves. Using stats from our database, we have calculated the average points per game ratio of each of the three managers against their seven remaining opponents in the Premier League. Those results leave Guardiola with 2.31ppg against Man City’s remaining opponents, Klopp with 2.29ppg against Liverpool’s remaining opponents, and Arteta with 2.03ppg against Arsenal’s remaining opponents.

We have then multiplied those numbers by the remaining games each clubs has left (3 for Arsenal & Liverpool and 4 for Man City) and then rounded to the nearest point. It means Man City would take 9 points from the remaining 12 available, leaving them on 88 points. Arsenal would take 6 points from the remaining 9 available, leaving them on 86 points in second. Liverpool would then take 7 from a possible 9 points and finish third with 82 points. It’s of course still if’s and buts. However, it will be interesting to see if history repeats itself, and how much of a factor these managers’ historic records against the teams they play on the run-in will have on who is crowned Premier League champions next month.