Faltering stars, backwards transfer policy – why Newcastle are struggling so much this season

​

Just 5 wins from 13 games 

©TM/IMAGO

Newcastle fans were left with an understandable degree of frustration on Saturday, when a late goal from Daniel Muñoz in the dying moments of the game snatched three points from Eddie Howe’s team and forced them to share the points evenly in a 1-1 draw with Crystal Palace. So soon after a 2-0 defeat to West Ham five days earlier, the result now means that Newcastle sit eleventh in the league table and have now gone eight match days since they last featured in the Premier League top six. And there was little doubt after the match that Howe was beginning to feel the pressure. “It is really gutting to concede the goal at the end,” said the Newcastle boss in an interview with the BBC. “I felt like we had weathered the storm and we would see the game out. We defended crosses well but one moment cost us today. In [our last] two games, we have let a lot of points slip.” 

The result now means that Howe and Newcastle are averaging just 1.46 points per game in the English top-flight this season – which is Howe’s worst return since becoming manager of the club in November 2021. What’s perhaps most worrying for fans of the club is the fact that it means that Newcastle are winning around 8% less points per match than last season and at this rate and will likely struggle to achieve their goals of seriously challenging for European qualification come May. So what’s gone wrong for Newcastle this season and is there any hope for Howe’s side to get back to winning ways?

Big players not showing up in attack

The most obvious problem with Howe’s side in the Premier League this season is that they simply aren’t scoring enough goals. Last season Newcastle averaged 2.24 goals per game in the English top-flight, but are now averaging just one solitary goal per game this time around. According to the BBC, Newcastle became only the eighth team since 2003 to avoid defeat despite only registering one shot or less in Saturday’s draw with Palace. And unfortunately for the club, there seems to be a number of issues at play that have led to Newcastle’s attacking line and flow of goals grinding to a halt. Last time around, Newcastle actually had the third most potent attacking trio in the Premier League with Alexander Isak, Gordon and Callum Wilson bagging a combined 41 goals for the club. Only Manchester City and Arsenal could lay claim to more product attacking lines. However, this season has seen Isak pick up just five goals in 15 games and Gordon score just two in 15 games, while Wilson has only just begun to return to first team football this season due to a long-term back injury. 

However, when we take a look at the club’s top five players for goal contributions per game from last season and this season in the graphic above, we can see that it isn’t just a case of Howe missing Wilson through injury. In the previous league campaign, Howe had five players averaging over 0.4 goals and assists per game for the club in Bruno Guimarães, Jacob Murphy and the aforementioned attacking trio. But this time around only one player in star striker Isak has managed to average more than 0.4 goal contributions per game. Here, the most obvious culprits are Guimarães and Murphy, who bagged between them a combined 25 goals and assists in the Premier League for Newcastle last season. This time around, despite featuring in all eight games so far this season, the pair have just three goals and assists to their name. And the attacking problems don’t stop there for Howe. 

Perhaps the most under-rated aspect of Newcastle’s attack last season was Kieran Trippier’s playmaking from the right flank. Not only did the England international finish the league campaign with the joint-highest assists in the team, but according to FBRef also completed more passes that led to a shot than any other player in Howe’s squad. However, this time around Trippier has struggled for form and fitness, starting just three of Newcastle’s first 13 games, having recently been ruled out of action with a hamstring injury. At 34 years of age, it’s highly unlikely that the full-back will return to form and prominence for Newcastle like he’s shown in recent seasons, but the worry for Howe is that first-choice right-back Tino Livramento has yet to bag a single assist this season and according to the aforementioned stats website is averaging just 0.71 passes that lead to a shot per game – which is considerably less than the 2.62 passes per game that his predecessor averaged last season.  

Howe’s side held back by backwards transfer policy

What will frustrate Newcastle fans about their poor start to the season is that much of it could have been largely mitigated had the club been more effective in the summer transfer window. Rather than effectively sign ideal transfer targets to fill the holes in their squad, Newcastle were held back by the appointment of new sporting director Paul Mitchell midway through the transfer window and the constant threat of breaking the Premier League’s financial fair play rules. This in turn meant that the club not only failed to sign any effective attacking reinforcements aside from back-up striker William Osula, but also sold Elliot Anderson to Nottingham Forest and Yankuba Minteh to Brighton for a combined €76.2m. Who were undoubtedly two players that could have provided more attacking threat in midfield or on the right wing, where Newcastle have struggled for much of this season. 

In fact, Newcastle’s complete in-action in the transfer window in the summer was so detrimental to Howe’s squad that the Athletic recently reported that the club may be forced to prioritise the signing of a new right winger in the January transfer window. All while the one they sold to Brighton continues to thrive for the Seagulls with two goals and assists in his first eight league appearances for Fabian Hürzeler’s side. In no uncertain terms, if Newcastle want to get back towards the top four of the Premier League table, they’ll have to find a way to support the hard work of Howe and his team with some smart transfer business in the January transfer window.