Brazil market values: Chelsea’s Estevão up by 33% – Vitor Reis receives first valuation

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Campeonato Brasileiro Série A 

The Campeonato Brasileiro Série A is the latest league to receive an intermediary update on Transfermarkt. Overall, 63 players were updated, and once again, the spotlight in Brazil has been on some of the world’s biggest talents. At the very top remains Chelsea prospect and Palmeiras star Estêvão. The 17-year-old forward has 15 goals and ten assists in 41 games across all competitions and managed to increase his market value by 33% to now €40 million. Estevão has now built a €13m gap to Thiago Almada. The Botafogo midfielder was signed from Atlanta United this summer and remains unchanged at €27m. 

“As an extremely skilled left-footed winger, Estêvão has impressed people to the point of being called ‘Messinho’ and has already shown great ability to score and find key passes in games for Palmeiras and for Brazil’s U17,” Area Manager Brazil Marcos Watts said about Estêvão. As a new generation of Brazilian talents arises, Estêvão can be considered one of the key pieces of Brazil’s future squad and shows as much – if not even more – potential as Endrick or Vitor Roque. He has already earned his place in the NT selection and might soon start fighting for a starting spot in the five-time world champions XI.”

While Estevão is still considered the next big thing out of Brazil, his teammate Vitor Reis is already labeled the next big thing in Brazil. The 18-year-old burst onto the scene for Palmeiras this season, scoring twice in 25 games across all competitions. “He seems to be following the footsteps of Murillo and Beraldo after playing for one of the big four clubs from the São Paulo state and quickly emerging as a top talent,” Watts said about Reis. Reis was previously without a market value and, with a €10m valuation, jumps straight into the top 25 most valuable players in Brazil ranking. “A €10m initial market value represents what the amazing talent and potential he has and what seems to be a new trend of great defenders rising in the Brazilian top tier,” Watts added. 

Another player to watch is Botafogo’s Luiz Henrique. The now 23-year-old emerged as a top talent for Fluminense in 2020/21. In 2022, Henrique was transferred for €10.4m to LaLiga side Real Betis. After an initially strong first season, the Brazilian struggled in his second season with the Spanish club. This February, Henrique moved back to Brazil, joining Botafogo in a deal worth €16m, and it appears that move was precisely what Henrique needed as the forward has scored nine goals and four assists across 41 games this season.

“Luiz Henrique’s career path might not sound usual or the most desirable one, but it shows how important it is to give young players time and space for their development,” Watts said. “Since his return to Brazil, Henrique has been the most influential player for a Botafogo side currently in first place in the Série A standings. Henrique has also been called up to the national team and started in the 1-0 win over Ecuador in World Cup qualifying. He seems bound to a brighter future and perhaps a move back to one of Europe’s top leagues.”  Henrique saw his market value increase by 33% to now €16m. 

While Henrique continues to make the most out of his move back to Brazil, Gabriel Barbosa continues to see his market value drop. After serving his doping ban earlier this season, Barbosa returned to the pitch in May but has managed just four goals and one assist in 26 games across all competitions for Flamengo. Nicknamed Gabigol, Barbosa has lacked his once famous goalscoring instinct this season – add to that fitness issues, and the market value downgrade of €1m to €7m was unavoidable. 

How Transfermarkt market values work

The Transfermarkt market values are calculated, taking into account various pricing models. A major factor is the Transfermarkt community, whose members discuss and evaluate player market values in detail. In general, the Transfermarkt market values are not to be equated with transfer fees. 

The goal is not to predict a price but an expected value of a player in a free market. Both individual transfer modalities and situational conditions are relevant in determining market values. Examples of this are listed below. Transfermarkt does not use an algorithm (you can find the detailed market value definition here).